The Conservative European Forum marks the tenth anniversary of the EU referendum with a warning that Britain cut itself off from its closest allies when it needed them most.
Sir David Lidington: Britain chose to leave “just as the Russian threat to the security of democratic Europe increased and the United States became a less reliable and more self-interestedly transactional ally.”
With nearly 60% of voters now calling Brexit a mistake, CEF makes the case for a new partnership with Europe – putting defence and economic growth first.
Ten years since the UK voted to leave the European Union, the Conservative European Forum has warned that the timing could hardly have been worse. The OBR puts the long-run cost at around 4% of GDP. Nearly 60% of voters now say leaving was a mistake. Britain chose to step back from Europe just as the case for standing with it became overwhelming. And the world we walked out into is now unrecognisable.
CEF Chair, Stephen Hammond, has called the past decade “ten wasted years.” Brexit was always likely to harm Britain economically and diplomatically, he argues, and so it has proved. The EU remains, by some distance, Britain’s largest trading partner: exports of goods and services were worth around £358 billion in 2024. Yet GDP per head is now estimated to be 6 to 8% lower than it would otherwise have been, business investment is down by as much as a fifth, and more than 440 financial services firms have moved part of their operations to the EU, taking some £900 billion in assets with them.
CEF’s answer is to rebuild not to refight the referendum. On its own, Britain cannot meet the economic and military challenges it now faces, and it can no longer rely on the United States as it once did. CEF is calling for steady, serious improvements in relations with Europe – a new partnership on defence and civil resilience first, alongside easier trade for exporters and farmers, closer co-operation on borders and crime, and a youth mobility scheme to give young Britons the chance to live, work and study across the continent.
Reflections from our Supporters
A decade on from the referendum, it is clear that the decision to leave the European Union has harmed both our country’s economic prospects and our international influence. Politically and diplomatically, Britain chose to leave the EU just as the Russian threat to the security of democratic Europe increased and the United States became a less reliable and more self-interestedly transactional ally. The challenge now, for both London and Brussels, is how to establish a constructive working relationship to deter threats to our security and prosperity and to advance the many interests that the UK and the EU have in common. For now, incremental improvements, with a new partnership on defence and civil resilience as the top priority, offer the best way forward.
CEF President Sir David Lidington KCB CBE
Former Minister for the Cabinet Office and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster
The tenth anniversary of the Brexit vote looms, and the aftermath of that referendum has seen a decade of instability. My overwhelming reflection of that campaign was it was a battle between reality and fantasy. Brexit was always likely to be harmful to the UK both economically and diplomatically and so it has proved. The Brexit campaign never had a plan, has failed to deliver, and is increasingly unpopular. Moreover, the aftermath of the aggressive and vitriolic campaign fought by Vote Leave has been a country riven still by division where both Remainers and Leavers all too often only really trust and socialise with people who voted the same way as they did.
In a dangerous world, we need to be able to co-operate with our neighbours, with other democracies, work with them and co-operate on shared problems. Britain is an independent sovereign nation but cannot resolve the increasing complex economic and military challenges alone; and it is both arrogant and foolhardy to believe that we can tell other countries how to do it better.
CEF Chair Stephen Hammond
Former Member of Parliament for Wimbledon and Minister for Health
What’s Brexit ever done for us, apart from divide us? On every yardstick Brexit has failed – on economic growth, cheaper food and energy, lower immigration, a better NHS. Worst of all, it has divided us from our European allies at a time when we face grave danger to our defence and security. Nobody –not even the Brexiteers – will be celebrating the tenth anniversary of the referendum.
CEF Patron Clive Watson
Founder of the City Pub Group
Ten years on from the EU referendum, the adverse impacts of leaving could not be clearer. It is impossible to discern how to date there has been any advantage for our country. Instead there is now widespread acceptance that the UK is economically poorer and weakened in its national security.
Our politics should therefore be focussed on how to remedy the problems which Brexit has caused and revive our country’s fortunes and improve the well being of its citizens. There are plenty of opportunities for us to revive the relationship with the EU and our neighbours if we have the will to it. But that requires a reasoned debate on the challenges we currently face and accepting the errors that have been made.
Dominic Grieve KC
Former Attorney General
Having led for the Conservatives on justice and home affairs in the European Parliament, I saw at first hand how closely the United Kingdom and its neighbours worked to keep people safe. Ten years on, we have given up our place in the shared databases and the everyday police and intelligence co-operation that helps catch criminals and prevent attacks, just as the threat from Russia was rising and American support grew less certain. Last year's Security and Defence Partnership was a sensible first step, but much more is needed.
We also face a significant economic cost. The EU is still, by some distance, our largest trading partner, yet investment has fallen and our businesses have been saddled with costs and bureaucracy they can ill afford when growth has been so anaemic. Our security and our prosperity now lie squarely with Europe, and we should rebuild that partnership steadily and in the national interest.
CEF Patron Lord Kirkhope of Harrogate
Former Leader of the Conservatives in the European Parliament and Home Office Minister
Now the UK is ten years on from the heart-breaking EU exit, our focus must be on enthusing younger generations with the positive European sentiment that inspired my own. A start has been made with participating again in the EU’s Horizon science programme and the impending re-entry of the Erasmus+ programme for educational exchanges. Next should be a youth mobility scheme, which could allow limited freedom of movement for young British people to live and work in the EU (and vice versa). Persistence, enthusiasm and determination is needed if political leaders can be persuaded that the UK must remove the red lines blocking return to the customs union, to the single market, and to freedom of movement.
CEF Patron Ian Taylor MBE
Former Minister for Science, Space and Technology
Ten years on from the referendum, Brexit has proved to be a disaster for many young people. As Alan Milburn’s recent report on social mobility and skills has emphasised, the sullen nature of economic growth coupled to stubbornly poor productivity and fewer attractive employment opportunities have combined to deny hope and progression for a whole generation of school, college and university leavers.
Being outside the EU has reduced the UK’s international trade activity, weakened economic competitiveness and discouraged investment, thus exacerbating the demographic trends already impacting today’s workforce and blighting the performance of the real economy.
As I noted at the time of the referendum and while also chair of the Education Select Committee, the UK must become more productive through a combination of astute investment, modernising education with a focus on skills, and a relentless pursuit of trade competitiveness in Europe. We have not achieved any of these priorities because the political system has, instead, been engulfed with the consequences of a hard Brexit.
David Cameron, when surveying the wreckage of the Conservative Party, must occasionally wonder if risking the national interest and carelessly enabling the wrong outcome was wise. Incredibly, the fate of the Conservative Party is only part of the political devastation caused by turning away from Europe and Britain’s respected place in the world.
Neil Carmichael
Former Member of Parliament and Chair of the Education Select Committee
Having spent 15 years at the heart of EU decision-making on the single market, I see how the impact of the UK's departure as the leading advocate for a free and open trading in Europe is evident. In the 10 years that we left there have been a succession of high-level initiatives – the latest being the Draghi and Letta reports - calling for the full potential of single market to be unlocked. The single market has stagnated without Britain being around the table. It's also clear how much the UK benefited from our EU Membership, particularly as opportunities offered to small enterprises to build European businesses have been closed. In driving innovation, even though we have re-engaged with Horizon Europe research, we no longer benefit from access to the growing range of EU innovation and start up programmes.
Malcolm Harbour CBE
Former Member of the European Parliament and Chair of the Internal Market and Consumer Protection Committee
I believe our best years are ahead. I imagine the UK as a connector at the centre of the world. Having defeated those forces of isolation and separation, it is once again confident in its own identity, aware that its history, geography, and innovative spirit position it to thrive in a new world, both virtual and physical.
As a 19-year-old I sat in my living room in a Lancashire working class town watching Nelson Mandela walk free and eastern Europeans ripping down the Berlin wall with their bare hands. With these two events a British Pakistani Lancastrian English muslim saw the canvass upon which he and countless others could paint their life’s story expand. The European single market, expansion of the EU to incorporate 10 new member states in 2004, removal of barriers and an explosion in opportunity.
These were the days when we had responsible governance. Leaders who understood the national interest. Politicians who understood that solutions are not found on the extremes.
We can rebuild from this point. Let’s get our mojo back and chart a pathway that genuinely restores opportunities for our businesses and young. Gives security to our elderly and recognises their contribution. Growth through an internationalist outlook backed up with market access fit for the digital age. Repair, rebuild and restore. Prosper with our continent. When we build Europe, we build ourselves.
Sajjad Karim
Former Member of the European Parliament
I have seven grandchildren between the ages of 17 and 22. I would like to think that Europe is their natural and instinctive environment for learning work, personal relationships and simple pleasure. My wife is French so we have been able to get French passports for everyone (except me, of course). But their contemporaries are imprisoned in the constraints of Brexit. I am a passionate Remainer having been a Euro-MP and worked in Brussels and Paris, but I do not think rejoining the EU is currently a practical option. I do want to see incremental improvements in our relationship with the EU with the priority on opportunities for young people from EU countries and the UK to travel, study and work. That apart, co-operation on defence - not an EU issue - should be a priority.
David Curry
Former Member of Parliament