Research released as part of the launch of the Conservative Group for Europe’s No 2 No Deal Campaign shows that Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party would be returned with fewer seats than under Theresa May in 2017. Pursuing a No Deal Brexit fails to unite the Leave vote and alienates Tory Remainers. Research was based on the question: “How would you vote in a general election if the Conservative Party and the Brexit Party included a No Deal Brexit in their manifesto?”



Headline Conclusions

  • The Conservatives will fare worse than in 2017 and their gains in Scotland are likely to be reversed, thereby, weakening the Union
  • The Conservatives are set to lose more moderate voters to the Liberal Democrats and other parties than they will attract from Brexit-centred parties
  • The majority of voters are opposed to No Deal
  • The Conservatives’ performance may be even worse than projected given the polarising effect the Government’s recent behaviour has had on public opinion. Around a fifth of intended 2019 Conservative voters are willing to contemplate voting for another party to block ‘No Deal’    

Under the guise of setting a new legislative agenda, the Prime Minister is attempting to silence Parliament at a time of national crisis and force though an undemocratic No Deal Brexit. He apparently believes that uniting the Leave vote can win a general election for a Conservative Party pursuing No Deal. However, the research shows a clear majority against No Deal, with 54% of UK voters believing it bad for the country.  

Hopes to win substantial numbers of seats in Leave-supporting Labour constituencies are misplaced with only 15% of Labour Leavers suggesting they would back the Tories. Conversely, of Conservative Remainers who continued to back the Party in 2017, 47% are now intending to vote for another party. A majority of these voters will now support the Liberal Democrats with the party set to gain seven seats from the Conservatives.

Meanwhile, there is no extreme Hard Brexit extreme enough for Brexit Party voters. The Tory Party keeps only 77% of its Leavevoters, with 18% going to the Brexit Party or UKIP.

While Jeremy Corbyn’s Brexit fudge haemorrhages support in both directions – losing 22% of Labour’s 2017 Remain voters (many of them former Conservatives) to the Lib Dems and 25% of its 2017 Leave voters to the Brexit Party – the Conservatives are failing to take advantage, picking up only a projected 311 seats. The party continues to bleed Remain voters while failing to pick up enough Leavers. The Labour Party has no cause for optimism either in going for an election at the present time.

The polling was commissioned by Conservative Group for Europe as part of its recently launched No 2 No Deal campaign. The Group is working with MPs, Peers, activists and other stakeholders to stop a No Deal Brexit.

The Group’s Chairman, the Right Hon Dominic Grieve QC MP, said of the research results: “The blind and irresponsible charge for Brexit at any price is polarising the country, threatening the Union and testing the Constitution to breaking point. It is also at risk of conveying the message that the Conservative Party is no place for moderates. As our polling shows, it is alienating more moderates than attracting hard-line Brexiteers so that we could come out of an election in a worse position than we are currently in – with no majority. The results are sobering enough, including the potential loss of ten seats in Scotland, but this is before the potential for tactical voting is factored in. Our poll shows that one fifth of Tory voters may defect if they can thereby block No Deal. Together with stopping needless economic harm and political carnage, this is why we are launching our No2NoDeal campaign to bring the government to its senses.”

Conservative Group for Europe Council Member, Baroness Ros Altmann added:

“There is no democratic mandate for leaving the EU without a deal. The 2016 Referendum gave a mandate to Leave with a good deal that gave us more free trade, more money and restored sovereignty to our own Parliament. That vote was not a mandate for leaving without a Deal, but has been used as an excuse to hijack democracy.

“Since 2016, voters have rejected No Deal time and again, as has Parliament itself. In the 2017 General Election, the 2018 Local Elections and this year’s EU Parliament Election, only a minority of voters supported the parties that would accept a No Deal Brexit. As democratic Conservatives, we must say ‘No’ to No Deal.